Space Weather Observatory

Source and method version: space-weather-method-v1 · October 2026.

This workspace brings together measured/estimated solar-terrestrial conditions, official NOAA forecasts, research models and NASA/JPL orbital data. Each retains its own units, valid time, uncertainty and coverage. There is no blended disaster probability or invented system-failure confidence score.

What is collected

Times, missing values and quality

• Retrieval/check time is distinct from observation time, model valid time, reporting period, orbital epoch and analysis time. Native source timestamps remain visible. Forecast rows are not relabelled observations.
• Missing, invalid and expired values remain unavailable. Genuine zero values remain zero. Negative solar-cycle fill values are gaps, including in the historical series beginning in 1749.
• GOES X-ray electron-contamination and magnetometer arcjet flags are retained; rejected samples remain gaps. EUVS flags, including geocorona, are disclosed. Source-specific radio-quality qualifications remain inspectable.
• The ≥2MeV electron channel can be contaminated during significant proton events. Its 1000particles/(cm²·s·sr) alert threshold is an environmental indicator, not a satellite-failure probability or radiation dose.
• Instantaneous/integral flux is particles/(cm²·s·sr); differential channels add a per-keV dimension; daily fluence omits the per-second dimension. X-rays/EUV irradiance are W/m², Mg II is a ratio, magnetic components are nT, solar-wind density is cm⁻³ and F10.7 uses solar flux units (10⁻²²W·m⁻²·Hz⁻¹).
• Proton-only dynamic pressure is derived as 1.67262192369×10⁻⁶ × density(cm⁻³) × speed(km/s)², in nPa. It omits the alpha contribution and is labelled derived.
• Source products may be available while particular measurements are missing, flagged or old. Counts are products/series/sample slots, not independent corroborating agencies; histories can include explicit gaps.

Risk context

Current R/S/G cards use the published NOAA current scale fields. Missing official values are not inferred as G0/R0/S0. Forecast G categories and R/S probabilities retain NOAA's supplied meanings. Bulletins show issue time and full text; presence in the recent list does not establish that a bulletin is still in effect. Read validity, cancellation and supersession statements.

Impact domains identify affected technologies—such as HF radio, GNSS, power transmission and spacecraft electronics. No local outage likelihood, personal radiation dose or asset-specific operational recommendation is inferred. NASA DONKI event interpretation/CME model arrivals remain separate from NOAA operational forecasts.

Aurora and geospace maps

• OVATION is an empirical model, normally driven by upstream solar-wind measurements; NOAA may use Kp fallback input. The grid is geographic longitude/latitude. It is not a geomagnetic-coordinate grid or a direct aurora observation.
• All360×181 published integer values are retained. Map pixels use nearest grid nodes rather than a heat-density sum. The fixed0–100% legend, display threshold and opacity are presentation controls; low-probability cells are not upgraded to a higher probability.
• North, South and World views show the globe without a Mercator polar cutoff. Clicks inspect the nearest accepted source cell. City presets are location references, not forecasts for an individual's horizon.
• The day/night mask uses approximate solar geometry at the displayed model's valid time. Clouds, light pollution, local terrain and observing conditions are not incorporated. Aurora visibility is not guaranteed by a model percentage.
• The latest aurora field is withheld after its observation freshness ceiling or past-valid-time grace. Up to12 actual captured model frames are retained, normally covering the recent six hours; selected historical frames are explicitly labelled and are not invented past observations.
• GloTEC is data-assimilative: its support flag0 indicates empirical background, not a failed value and not an observation. Positive support values indicate increasing/capped assimilated F-region observational support. The optional supported-only layer excludes background-only cells. TECU =10¹⁶electrons/m². hmF2 is km; NmF2 is electrons/m³. No GNSS positioning error is calculated from vertical TEC alone.
• Geoelectric magnitude is derived from the supplied Ex/Ey components. Native quality flags and distance to the nearest station are retained without inventing quality categories. Where the payload provides only a date, the file timestamp is explicitly identified as the time basis. Coverage depends on regional conductivity models/surveys.

Asteroid atlas and monitoring

• The orbital catalogue is near-Earth asteroids, not all Solar-System small bodies. It is bounded at50,000 records. The map draws a bounded≤120-object sample; tables and paginated exports expose the published catalogue.
• Paths are nominal osculating ellipses reconstructed from the source semimajor axis, eccentricity, inclination, ascending node and argument of perihelion in heliocentric IAU76/80 ecliptic J2000. Dots are at each record's own source epoch using mean anomaly. Different objects can have different epochs. This is not a current ephemeris, a close-encounter propagation or an impact corridor. Unsupported frames/unbound trajectories are not fabricated.
• AU rings are distance references, not exact planetary positions. Earth approach data are separately plotted against time and geocentric miss distance. CAD dates/Julian epochs are TDB; native calendar labels remain TDB. Countdown days use an approximate UTC/Julian comparison, not precision TDB–UTC conversion.
• CAD minimum/maximum distances and time uncertainties are provider three-sigma quantities. Diameter uncertainty, when supplied, is one-sigma. Missing sizes remain missing.
• MOID is the minimum distance between orbital paths, not a predicted simultaneous encounter. PHA is a source classification, not an impact prediction.
• Sentry probabilities are cumulative over their supplied potential-impact windows; Palermo and Torino retain NASA definitions. Uncertain solutions can change with additional observations. Sentry diameters are often approximate estimates from H/albedo. Scout candidates, classification scores and ordinal ratings are not equivalent to Sentry probabilities.
• Fireballs are historical sensor reports at peak brightness, with approximate radiated/estimated impact energy and incomplete coverage. Missing locations remain unlocated. They are not future asteroid impact locations; radiated energy (10¹⁰J) and estimated impact energy (kt) remain separate.

Collection and freshness

The browser reads published snapshots through /agent/api/space-weather-world; it does not trigger provider collection or accept arbitrary provider URLs. A background worker checks due products approximately every two minutes. Most live NOAA products refresh every5–15minutes; daily/history/model products have longer schedules. JPL CAD/Scout are hourly, Sentry six-hourly and the orbital catalogue/fireball archive daily. The Sources view lists each product's actual interval, freshness ceiling, retrieval/check time and error state.

Requests use reviewed HTTPS hosts, protected DNS, response/time bounds, source schemas, persistent pacing/backoff and atomic publication. A shared process-safe JPL broker serializes requests across the router and new worker, reuses cached responses with original retrieval timestamps, supplies a product/contact User-Agent and persists rate-limit/review pauses. Public force/custom-URL/private selectors are rejected by the new dataset.

Exports use source/freshness snapshot guards. If a snapshot changes during pagination, restart the export rather than merging generations. Account changes and replay clear live selections and fence late responses. Hidden map renderers are released.

Source references and credits

• NOAA SWPC public data service · NOAA scale definitions · OVATION model · GloTEC · Geoelectric models.
• NASA CCMC DONKI · September30,2026 API migration. The new canonical ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI-API/get/… endpoints are used. The former kauai endpoints return a migration notice.
• NASA/JPL API documentation and fair use · CAD · SBDB Query · Sentry · Scout · Fireballs.
• Solar-cycle/radio context includes NOAA-distributed WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels and NRCan/DRAO data. Regional geoelectric products acknowledge NOAA/SWPC, NRCan, USGS and the referenced EPRI/EMTF conductivity work. Basemap credits remain displayed for Esri and OpenStreetMap contributors.

The former predicted_monthly_sunspot_number.json file ends in2022 despite being retrievable today and is not used as a current forecast. The reviewed standalone DONKI WSAEnlilSim path returned404; supported CME-associated model runs and NOAA ENLIL products are used with their own scope. Independent Kyoto Dst redistribution remains a reviewed-source gap; Geospace model Dst is not relabelled Kyoto observation.