Bayes Threat · Freedom & Prosperity
This research workspace separates published statistics, externally produced indices and the existing authored Bayes/AnCap scenario. There is no single universally agreed measure of freedom or prosperity, and association does not establish causation.
Evidence connected
| Family | Coverage and interpretation |
|---|---|
| World Bank WGI | Six current GOV_WGI_*.SC governance scores, with country/year-matched 90% lower and upper uncertainty bounds. These are published perception-based indices on a 0–100 score scale, not event probabilities or the old percentile-rank series. The 2026 source-3 release includes observations through 2025. |
| V-Dem via Our World in Data | Civil liberties/human rights, private civil liberties, political civil liberties and physical integrity. Expert-coded indices from the 2026 v16 release; 0–1 scale, higher means more rights within that construct. Components are related and are not independent corroborating sources. |
| UNDP via Our World in Data | Human Development Index: health, schooling and material living standards. The available release contains observations through 2023. It does not measure every form of freedom, inequality or wellbeing. |
| World Development Indicators | 21 series covering PPP-adjusted income, growth, inflation, poverty, inequality, life expectancy, infant mortality, literacy, school enrollment, electricity, Internet, water, sanitation, labor markets, fiscal context, homicide, trade, FDI and financial account ownership. |
The catalogue has 217 World Bank economies plus an explicit Taiwan ISO reference for available V-Dem data. No World Bank observation is inferred for that reference. Aggregate regions and historical entities are excluded from country comparisons. Kosovo is matched through its explicit publisher code.
Periods, units and uncertainty
Histories cover reported years from 2014 onward. Missing years remain missing; the application does not carry them forward. Latest-available views can mix years and display each year. Common-year views require that exact year. Relationship analysis is disabled in latest/mixed-year mode.
GDP per capita is in constant 2021 international dollars (PPP), not market-exchange-rate USD. The poverty series uses $3.00/day at 2021 PPP; it must not be spliced with older $2.15/2017-PPP releases. Gross school enrollment can exceed 100%. Tax revenue and central-government debt retain their source government coverage and are not complete tax-policy or general-government measures.
WGI uncertainty bounds are published source intervals. They are not the legacy model’s heuristic confidence, country rank certainty or a prediction interval. V-Dem and UNDP descriptions, source editions and processing notes are available through each indicator’s Explain button. OWID’s published processing can include historical imputation; source definitions must be reviewed before interpreting long-run changes.
Comparison and relationships
Up to four economies can be compared. No aggregate freedom score or implicit weighting is imposed. Scatter plots and unweighted Pearson correlations use only finite, same-year paired observations and require at least five pairs for a coefficient. Outliers, sampling, revisions and confounders matter. The result is descriptive association, not causation or a forecast. Paired rows can be exported for reproducibility.
Existing Bayes scenario
The existing model retains its authored priors, weights, normalization, replay behavior and completeness gates. The new annual evidence does not automatically change likelihoods, upgrade live-event coverage or unlock withheld scores. The Bayes scenario view uses its own original country selector and accepted snapshot. Its output is an exploratory scenario/index, not a calibrated probability or official freedom rating.
Gaps that remain
Country-specific current tax laws and effective rates, subnational policy, self-defense law, family autonomy, surveillance practice, expropriation, exit restrictions and legal enforcement need reviewed primary legal sources. Annual national indicators cannot replace current violence, outage and health-event evidence. No claim of exhaustive worldwide legal-policy coverage is made.
Refresh and source use
The server checks sources at most daily, uses fixed public endpoints and bounded responses, and retains dated last-good evidence on failure. Provider 403/429 retry windows are persisted. Browser Refresh retrieves the cached collection; it does not force providers. Retrieval time is shown separately from observation year and release date. Live supplementary data is paused during historical replay.
Public read-only data: freedom-prosperity API. WGI and WDI retain World Bank/original-producer attribution and applicable data terms. V-Dem data is CC BY 4.0; UNDP HDI metadata declares CC BY 3.0 IGO. OWID transformations and source metadata remain attributed. Data marked non-redistributable is rejected.