Current context, dated evidence
A freshness panel distinguishes the current UTC month and year, annual conflict coverage, the latest retained provisional event edition and collection times. Scenario years remain explicit choices. At verification in October 2026, the retained annual conflict edition covers through 2025 and provisional event coverage extends through September 2026; a recent collection does not turn those into October observations.
Renewal while you work
Visible Futures and Deep research views check for updates every five minutes. New evidence can refresh a reading view; unsaved forms, scenario drafts and paged selections remain in place with an update notice. Background checks pause when the workspace is hidden or live access is unavailable.
The annual collector runs daily and the research collector every six hours. Publication discovery checks daily and statistical sources retain their weekly cadence. Compatible complete annual UCDP editions are selected from the publisher’s listed files and validated before publication. World Bank resource requests now advance with the calendar year, while missing observations remain missing. A failed or incompatible edition keeps the preceding published snapshot.
Start exploring
Refresh Watchtower, then open Advanced / Investigate → Geopolitical Futures. Use Deep research for provisional events and current reporting, and Sources & methods for individual source periods. Historical issues, agreements and support studies retain their own older coverage. Access-denied annual humanitarian discovery remains disclosed; the separately accessible API continues to refresh its reviewed edition. Existing forecast issuance and historical narrative dates are preserved.