Start with an explicit question
Forecast Lab is a new main tab beside Calendar. Its initial market pilot covers nine ETF reference-price series across US and international equities, Treasuries, high-yield credit, gold, oil futures and dollar futures, at one, five and twenty NYSE sessions. Each target includes a directional estimate, a central model range, historical analogs, source clocks and model-component comparisons.
The pilot adds up to five years of daily reference history through Watchtower’s existing public-market source. These are fund-price returns, excluding distributions and trading costs, rather than forecasts of underlying spot commodities, yields or total investment returns.
Connect the wider picture
The workspace brings in the existing eight-family Outcome Studio model with source-linked dependency groups and confirm/falsify conditions. Upcoming Calendar releases provide economic catalysts, while current coordinate weather forecasts and official outlooks retain their original source definitions and valid periods.
The What-if Lab lets you inspect historical same-window co-movement under a specified fund-price move. Results are withheld when fewer than twelve non-overlapping windows match. This is a conditional historical comparison, not a causal impact estimate.
Follow the evidence and the outcomes
Research projections are kept distinct from immutable prospective shadow forecasts. Live issuance uses finalized daily observations and an outside-session schedule. Issued records retain their actual issue clock, model and definition identifiers, exact normalized input bundle, baseline and target session. Compatible outcomes are recorded automatically; source corrections append revisions rather than rewrite the original forecast.
Historical reconstruction is displayed separately from the growing live record. The Track record view reports proper scores, interval coverage and baseline comparisons, including targets where the model has higher loss. Live calibration and a persistent predictive advantage have not been established. Historical data may be revised and is not an original-vintage backtest.
Explore on desktop or mobile
Use the market and cross-domain horizon controls, search, source drilldowns, fullscreen view, historical what-if comparisons and JSON/CSV exports. Browser-local, account-scoped watches show material estimate changes while the workspace is visible. Existing source gaps, history gates, owner access and replay boundaries remain explicit.